Poland Before the Elections: Two Visions
Poland is gearing up and awaiting the results of the October elections to the Sejm and Senate. While during the holiday period (referred to as the “cucumber season” in Poland) the campaign has slowed down, all political forces and the majority of commentators consider the upcoming vote to be the most important in a very long time, perhaps since the fall of communism in 1989.
The leader of the opposition Civic Platform, Donald Tusk, spoke in November last year about the ruling party’s two terms: “If they win the next elections, the path will be set, perhaps for decades. (…) Our entire dream of a free and modern Poland, Western in a political sense (…) will be squandered.”
Meanwhile, his greatest opponent, the leader of Law and Justice, Jarosław Kaczyński, recently said: “These are the most important elections since ’89, because compared to the situation four or eight years ago, the situation has changed significantly.” And he listed four aspects: security, economy, sovereignty, and culture (civilization).
Both the main and other parties, which may expect to exceed the 5 percent electoral threshold (New Left, the centrist coalition Third Way, and the right-wing Confederation), as well as numerous commentators on Polish political life, therefore emphasize the breakthrough nature of the choice that Poles will make in two months.
What is the particular importance of these elections? And why are the main parties exceptionally motivated to win them? What are the differences between the visions of both camps?
First of all: both the internal state of Poland and external circumstances have changed so much over the last two terms that, on the one hand, the country has gained entirely new possibilities, and on the other hand, it is exposed to dangers not seen for decades.
Let’s start with the internal factor. It is a model of a diversified, almost non-oligarchic export economy and the associated economic success, as well as an increase in the standard of living of ordinary people. The awareness of Poland’s rapid and stable development is certainly not new, but in recent years, a qualitative change has occurred. Poland – imperceptibly – ceases to be an economy dependent either on individual partners or on EU funds. This can be expressed as economic growth becoming much more sovereign, although Poland is deeply immersed in globalization. That is, we are becoming a subject, not an object.
We are still far from the economic premier league – we still lack certain elements, such as domestic capital, the highest technologies produced in the country, the level (though not the pace) of robotization, and there are definitely too few Polish brands recognized worldwide. But it can be said that Poland is breaking out of the so-called middle development trap and dependent development.
After 2015, when Law and Justice took over the government, Poland also began to pursue a more assertive and proactive policy, which, combined with a rich budget and a rising standard of living, resulted in significantly increased confidence of both elites and society itself. Moreover, Poland coped quite well with successive crises: the pandemic, the influx of migrants, and the war in Ukraine and the armament program.
On the other hand, besides successes, there have been failures and uncertainties. The government’s policy towards the European Union’s climate plans raises concerns even among Law and Justice supporters, high inflation is a campaign issue, poor demographic indicators do not help, and a grim shadow of war hangs over everything. And EU federalization projects also do not increase the stability of our political scene.
In this situation, the electoral battle intensifies, and the two main political groups, one of which will appoint the future prime minister, focus on polarization, seeing it as an opportunity to increase their support on the one hand, and on the other hand, to demobilize the opponent’s electorate.
If we reduce the campaign messages to their essence and set aside electoral tricks, mutual accusations, and promises, some of which obviously cannot be fulfilled, two fundamental visions of Poland and its place in the world remain.
The first is the vision of Civic Platform, Third Way, and the Left (these parties differ significantly in their programs but are quite consistent in their vision), which relies on a stronger embedding of Poland in European structures and teamwork with other countries on the continent. Even if sometimes the dominance of Germany and other major EU players appears in this narrative, the counterargument lies in emphasizing the friendship and alliance prevailing on the continent, and furthermore, in the vision of Poland’s stronger position (“we will sit at one table with the biggest players”). In addition to this, the vision includes accelerated convergence, energy transformation, liberalism, and further Europeanization of Polish society. Of course, in the background, there are suggestions of the end of the bipolar world, i.e., American dominance.
The second vision, presented by Law and Justice (and basically also by the Confederation, although these parties, like in the opposition bloc, differ significantly), also assumes development within the European Union but with quite different accents. First of all, there is no talk of federalization or even deeper integration. Secondly, PiS strongly emphasizes the transatlantic alliance, opposing the so-called EU strategic autonomy as unrealistic or at least a very distant vision. Thirdly, economic development is to be based on diversity and competition, not convergence, and social development is to be based on a strong emphasis on national identity and traditional values, led by family.
It is difficult to infer from polls which vision will gain more supporters. Especially since the vision of the country’s development is not the only factor determining the election outcome. Equally important is the mobilization of electorates, which consists of motivation and emotions related not only to the prospect of victory for the preferred party but also fear of the victory of the unwanted one.
Marek Wróbel
Marek Wróbel (born 1969) – President of the Board of the Republican Foundation, graduated from the Faculty of Law and Administration and the Faculty of Journalism and Political Science at the University of Warsaw. From 2006 to 2007 he served as the head of the political cabinet of the Minister of Economy.
The material was created as part of the project “North and South – internationalization of activities of the Republican Foundation” co-financed by NIW-CRSO under the Civil Society Organizations Development Program for the years 2018-2030 (PROO).
